Good Saturday morning racing fans!
Tonight there is some solid action in harness land, with the $200,000 Dan Patch. It's a good race,with returning four year olds, facing some seasoned champs. I'm looking at A Rock n Roll Dance for John Campbell in an upset.
Orb! Jeremy Plonk takes the same stance that PTP took here. Alan today asks a more important question. What do we do with him in the Belmont?
What do we do indeed.
If you chalk Orb's loss to inside paths, or bad trips, you will probably receive the odds needed to bet him. His average Derby and Preakness Beyer certainly puts him at or near favorite status. His breeding and running style likely means he should improve with distance, juicing up a fig, making that Beyer even more formidable. He's in your wheelhouse.
If you're more in line with me and Plonk, well, that's where it gets tricky. Does he bounce back? Does he have an issue we can't see? Will three weeks sound him up if so?
Like Alan is with Palace Malice, I kind of wish Orb not going to New York, simply because I'd like a different puzzle to figure out as a handicapper. Having said that, I hope he wins, because he's a nice horse, and he deserves it.
A Harness Racing Report card was given out on Thursday at HRU (pdf).
I, like a lot of you, have been watching the NHL playoffs this year. I think the officiating has turned into something we are unfamiliar. It seems they can call literally 20 things a game the way its being called today, but they let 16 on each side go, then pick four of them to call when they feel it's the right time. The press is having a field day, and no doubt the NHL will have to do something about it.
Growing up watching the playoffs we always got stoked for playoff time, because there would be so few power plays. this allowed for a game flow with little momentum interruptions, and it let the players - five on five - decide games. The league decided they'd become a thoroughbred steward - if the foul took away a winning horse's chance, the horse would be pitched.
This over the years has changed - the stewards seem to be calling every nudge, or bump in a turf race - indubitably to help skill teams score more by opening up the ice. But it is a far cry from old time playoff hockey.
I think I'll write a column on judging sometime in the coming weeks, just for fun. It's always a neat topic.
Speaking of old time hockey, it's Memorial Day weekend in the US. People remember the folks who went to war for us in different ways. For me, I remember my 'defacto' Grandfather. He was a World War II vet who met my family when my father was coaching a Junior B hockey team in Northern Ontario, (who his son was playing against). As he told me the story, my father had sat his star player down in an important game for being too selfish with the puck which was causing turnovers. He promoted the hardest working kid to the first line and the team rallied around this, and won the game, and the playoff series. He liked that move as a tough-nosed Air Force vet I guess, and moved his son to my father's team the following year.
The rest was history. He traveled with us on road trips to horse races (he was a huge racing fan), and because my dad was so busy at work, took me hunting and fishing. It might sound funny in today's world, but when I was eight he bought me my first rifle and showed me how to use it safely. I learned a lot from him, and I will remember him forever, especially on holidays which remember our war vets. God bless you Mr. Burns.
Have a nice long weekend, my US friends. And to everyone, good luck and good racing.
Saturday, May 25, 2013
Friday, May 24, 2013
Where Are the Professionals?
Yesterday on social media there was quite the brouhaha regarding yesterdays CHRB meeting. Apparently the CHRB Chair led what several called an unprofessional meeting. I can't really comment on it, because I have not listened to the meeting. Whether what was reported was opinion or fact, truth or fiction, doesn't really matter in the following post, though.
I was speaking with someone from California a few weeks ago about the situation there, and let's face it, it's a mess. A major track closing with seemingly no back up plan. Massive handle losses since 2000. Short fields, track changes; we can go on. This person spoke about the people who are running the sport in the Golden State and said they were good people. I have no reason not to believe this. If you love this sport you love this sport. You don't try and hurt it and I think no one out there is trying to do that.
What I said to this person was 'it's all across racing. We simply do not have CEO smart, experienced people running the good ship racing'.
Bob Evans is CEO smart, and by all accounts does a great job. But he works for CDI's shareholders and employees, not racing and they can probably be considered a gaming or casino company anyway. There are several (many?) others like him in our sport, like Nick Eaves at Woodbine.
But when it comes to the running of the sport, with vision, passion, hard work and smarts, we have a void. A big void. We have board appointments who knows someone who knows someone. We have horsemen group heads who I am sure do a good job, but are generally much better at keeping a horse sound, not making high level decisions to keep a billion dollar plus business sound.
In this day and age open a newspaper and you'll see CEO's being bashed left and right. Some of them deserve it, but most don't. A 'CEO type' does not get to be a CEO type by being what you read. It takes a lot of hard work, some serious book learning, 18 hour workdays that last many years, and some major time spent in the trenches. People like Meg Whitman of HP, which is in the midst of a nice business turnaround, are not your average everyday person. That's some talent.
This talent is witnessed in hundreds of good organizations with budgets ranging from tens to hundreds of millions to billions of dollars, from hundreds of employees to many thousands like at HP. In racing, (for example, in California) the racing business, in terms of revenues, can dwarf many of the companies you read about in the Wall Street Journal. They support more jobs than a Fortune 500 company does.
But who is making the decisions for this multi-billion dollar business? Political appointees in makeshift meetings.
I'm not bashing the people who are lending their time, who care about the sport of racing. I am not going to bash the CHRB members. It's just that they don't have the tools to succeed in this huge task. Not many do.
It's not their fault. It's our sports' fault for letting it happen by not ensuring a billion dollar business employs the people experienced enough to run one.
I was speaking with someone from California a few weeks ago about the situation there, and let's face it, it's a mess. A major track closing with seemingly no back up plan. Massive handle losses since 2000. Short fields, track changes; we can go on. This person spoke about the people who are running the sport in the Golden State and said they were good people. I have no reason not to believe this. If you love this sport you love this sport. You don't try and hurt it and I think no one out there is trying to do that.
What I said to this person was 'it's all across racing. We simply do not have CEO smart, experienced people running the good ship racing'.
Bob Evans is CEO smart, and by all accounts does a great job. But he works for CDI's shareholders and employees, not racing and they can probably be considered a gaming or casino company anyway. There are several (many?) others like him in our sport, like Nick Eaves at Woodbine.
But when it comes to the running of the sport, with vision, passion, hard work and smarts, we have a void. A big void. We have board appointments who knows someone who knows someone. We have horsemen group heads who I am sure do a good job, but are generally much better at keeping a horse sound, not making high level decisions to keep a billion dollar plus business sound.
In this day and age open a newspaper and you'll see CEO's being bashed left and right. Some of them deserve it, but most don't. A 'CEO type' does not get to be a CEO type by being what you read. It takes a lot of hard work, some serious book learning, 18 hour workdays that last many years, and some major time spent in the trenches. People like Meg Whitman of HP, which is in the midst of a nice business turnaround, are not your average everyday person. That's some talent.
This talent is witnessed in hundreds of good organizations with budgets ranging from tens to hundreds of millions to billions of dollars, from hundreds of employees to many thousands like at HP. In racing, (for example, in California) the racing business, in terms of revenues, can dwarf many of the companies you read about in the Wall Street Journal. They support more jobs than a Fortune 500 company does.
But who is making the decisions for this multi-billion dollar business? Political appointees in makeshift meetings.
I'm not bashing the people who are lending their time, who care about the sport of racing. I am not going to bash the CHRB members. It's just that they don't have the tools to succeed in this huge task. Not many do.
It's not their fault. It's our sports' fault for letting it happen by not ensuring a billion dollar business employs the people experienced enough to run one.
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Beyer Figs, Hidden Positives & Pop Bottles
There was (is) some twitter chatter this morning about Beyer figures. As we all know, their creator, Andy Beyer used them in the 1970's to try and standardize racetimes in a number, to make it easier for him to see who was fastest on a given day, at a given track. These numbers, like most, have a lower win percentage than favorites, but had a very strong ROI.
Over the years, as more and more people used them, or created their own, their handicapping predictability does not change, but their value gets eroded. 35 or so years later, pure speed figures are what they are.
In handicapping, Beyer figures when used by Andy and a few other sharpies was the holy grail. They're still one of the most sharp, interesting and formidable items to happen in handicapping and will forever be.
That got me thinking to back when I was a kid. In harness racing we could not use Beyers or track variants because there really wasn't many. But we could make our own 'figures' in some instances.
_________________________________________________________________________________
I had just finished writing an exam; in I think Modern Symbolic Logic, at the downtown campus at the University of Toronto. I was 18. I had $1.50 in my pocket – streetcar fare. I sped to the streetcar stop and finally made it home.
I had to find some way to raise some capital and get to the track. I found a good bet in the Greenwood third race and since I was broke, I needed to make some sort of score.
My roommates were not home so they were no help. I'd scrounged up some change I found on the floor of my room. Then I found some soda bottles, then the coup de grace, a few empty cases of beer. The beer store was down the road about a half a block, and I was walking distance to Greenwood. After cashing those in I had enough to pay admission, split a program with a buddy (who was also broke and a student), and go to town with $11 worth of bets on my horse.
The horse was a mare. I think she was by Armbro Splurge, and she had recently qualified in fast time at a new track that opened up in Sarnia, Ontario. But there was something funny about this brand new track - it was dreadfully slow. I swore that horses there were turning for home in a pile of molasses carting a 300 pound driver, pulling several bowling balls made of iron. I noticed that once before at a B track with a Sarnia shipper who won at a bomb price, and I was hoping to capitalize on that knowledge.
Betting is pretty simple. If you know something other people don't you have a "hidden positive", and hidden positives can make you big money. I felt this one could be one of those. At least I was hoping so.
Race 3 was a tri race (not all races were tri's in the late 1980's), so of course I had to try and bet one of those. Plus, some win money was a good thought. My plan was set.
The odds board opened and this little filly shipper from near Detroit was 30-1. I played a $1 triactor key for $6 and bet $2 to win and $3 to place. My bankroll was summarily shot.
The race went off and she got off fifth or sixth, pulled and tipped off cover at the head of the lane. I was pretty confident because she looked super off cover and I began looking for my horses to fill triactor slots, which any gambler will tell you is a big mistake. Well not this time as the gods were with me. Maybe they felt sorry for me since I was so broke.
She stormed home and crossed the wire in first, by two lengths, and the tri was filled. I had won.
The prices flashed up: $830 or $840 for the triple and $44 for the win price.
It was exhilaration.
This was the way it was back then with betting. The Internet today would never have let that happen. Word would have gotten out about this nice filly. Word would have spread about the depth of the Sarnia track. I bet that mare today would have paid less than $10.
This is a very difficult game. Sometimes you can find a hidden positive or obscure angle, but it doesn't happen very often. In the days of Pittsburgh Phil (and he alludes to this in his classic book) you could be a railbird, pick your spots, watch races and chart them (there were not even past performances back then), and make a pile of money. Sometimes I long for those days, being the fan that I am.
Regardless, for one day – one brief moment- I felt like I was there, back in 1900, making a score with Phil.
Over the years, as more and more people used them, or created their own, their handicapping predictability does not change, but their value gets eroded. 35 or so years later, pure speed figures are what they are.
In handicapping, Beyer figures when used by Andy and a few other sharpies was the holy grail. They're still one of the most sharp, interesting and formidable items to happen in handicapping and will forever be.
That got me thinking to back when I was a kid. In harness racing we could not use Beyers or track variants because there really wasn't many. But we could make our own 'figures' in some instances.
_________________________________________________________________________________
I had just finished writing an exam; in I think Modern Symbolic Logic, at the downtown campus at the University of Toronto. I was 18. I had $1.50 in my pocket – streetcar fare. I sped to the streetcar stop and finally made it home.
I had to find some way to raise some capital and get to the track. I found a good bet in the Greenwood third race and since I was broke, I needed to make some sort of score.
My roommates were not home so they were no help. I'd scrounged up some change I found on the floor of my room. Then I found some soda bottles, then the coup de grace, a few empty cases of beer. The beer store was down the road about a half a block, and I was walking distance to Greenwood. After cashing those in I had enough to pay admission, split a program with a buddy (who was also broke and a student), and go to town with $11 worth of bets on my horse.
The horse was a mare. I think she was by Armbro Splurge, and she had recently qualified in fast time at a new track that opened up in Sarnia, Ontario. But there was something funny about this brand new track - it was dreadfully slow. I swore that horses there were turning for home in a pile of molasses carting a 300 pound driver, pulling several bowling balls made of iron. I noticed that once before at a B track with a Sarnia shipper who won at a bomb price, and I was hoping to capitalize on that knowledge.
Betting is pretty simple. If you know something other people don't you have a "hidden positive", and hidden positives can make you big money. I felt this one could be one of those. At least I was hoping so.
Race 3 was a tri race (not all races were tri's in the late 1980's), so of course I had to try and bet one of those. Plus, some win money was a good thought. My plan was set.
The odds board opened and this little filly shipper from near Detroit was 30-1. I played a $1 triactor key for $6 and bet $2 to win and $3 to place. My bankroll was summarily shot.
The race went off and she got off fifth or sixth, pulled and tipped off cover at the head of the lane. I was pretty confident because she looked super off cover and I began looking for my horses to fill triactor slots, which any gambler will tell you is a big mistake. Well not this time as the gods were with me. Maybe they felt sorry for me since I was so broke.
She stormed home and crossed the wire in first, by two lengths, and the tri was filled. I had won.
The prices flashed up: $830 or $840 for the triple and $44 for the win price.
It was exhilaration.
This was the way it was back then with betting. The Internet today would never have let that happen. Word would have gotten out about this nice filly. Word would have spread about the depth of the Sarnia track. I bet that mare today would have paid less than $10.
This is a very difficult game. Sometimes you can find a hidden positive or obscure angle, but it doesn't happen very often. In the days of Pittsburgh Phil (and he alludes to this in his classic book) you could be a railbird, pick your spots, watch races and chart them (there were not even past performances back then), and make a pile of money. Sometimes I long for those days, being the fan that I am.
Regardless, for one day – one brief moment- I felt like I was there, back in 1900, making a score with Phil.
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Orb Excuse Chatter Revisited
My pal Left at the Gate looked at Orb's Preakness and the talk surrounding it. Namely, i) Orb was pace compromised and ii) Orb was path compromised.
The meme being that he was too far inside on a bad part of the track and he was too far back at the half to make a run in slow fractions.
To me, it makes not much sense at all, and is excuse-ridden, in a game full of them when horse's who should not get beat, do.
Here is the quarter. Notice what path the winner, Oxbow is in. Now, notice where Orb is.
What's Oxbow, maybe the 'one and a half path'? Orb is not in a much different spot, maybe in the 'one and a quarter path' (as we grab a our handy protractor and do some grade 11 math).
Later on in the first turn, the Bloodhorse "Race Sequence" confirms this (Oxbow 6, Orb 1), as both Gary and Joel drift slightly off the inside path. Note that Rosie on Mylute (5) is hugging the wood.
Now, at the half, let's have a look:
There's Oxbow on top again, in what looks like a two path. Behind him, about a half length from his tail, outside Goldencents, is Orb (he was actually closer than this, a fraction earlier). From this view it actually looks like Orb is slightly outside Oxbow's path. And obviously, he is not overly pace compromised here. He is almost on Oxbow's flank, and moved towards him in a slow 24.4 backstretch quarter. After briefly engaging Oxbow, in a half he can probably work in with Fat Albert on his back, Orb wants no part of it, and backs off for good.
Orb does not seem to be overly pace compromised, nor is he overly path compromised; he just seems uninterested. Add the fact that Mylute closed from well behind Orb, while racing the entire first three eighths along the wood, we have ourselves a real shindig.
I've read the analysis, I've watched the replays, I've deciphered the pictures. I do this for more than just the Preakness, because in betting I look for pace and path compromised or aided horses for a rebet or a fade. I also run weekly path and speed biases in my software. I see nothing of the kind in Orb's case.
Like I wrote after the race - like Secretariat or Monarchos in the Wood, or Blame in the JCGC, or your average every day filly at Mountaineer or Calder - sometimes horses don't fire. Orb probably did not fire his best shot. I find no reason to change that opinion.
The meme being that he was too far inside on a bad part of the track and he was too far back at the half to make a run in slow fractions.
To me, it makes not much sense at all, and is excuse-ridden, in a game full of them when horse's who should not get beat, do.
Here is the quarter. Notice what path the winner, Oxbow is in. Now, notice where Orb is.
What's Oxbow, maybe the 'one and a half path'? Orb is not in a much different spot, maybe in the 'one and a quarter path' (as we grab a our handy protractor and do some grade 11 math).
Later on in the first turn, the Bloodhorse "Race Sequence" confirms this (Oxbow 6, Orb 1), as both Gary and Joel drift slightly off the inside path. Note that Rosie on Mylute (5) is hugging the wood.
Now, at the half, let's have a look:
Orb does not seem to be overly pace compromised, nor is he overly path compromised; he just seems uninterested. Add the fact that Mylute closed from well behind Orb, while racing the entire first three eighths along the wood, we have ourselves a real shindig.
I've read the analysis, I've watched the replays, I've deciphered the pictures. I do this for more than just the Preakness, because in betting I look for pace and path compromised or aided horses for a rebet or a fade. I also run weekly path and speed biases in my software. I see nothing of the kind in Orb's case.
Like I wrote after the race - like Secretariat or Monarchos in the Wood, or Blame in the JCGC, or your average every day filly at Mountaineer or Calder - sometimes horses don't fire. Orb probably did not fire his best shot. I find no reason to change that opinion.
Monday, May 20, 2013
Paid Content At the DRF?
In Fast Company, the DRF CEO was interviewed and relayed the organization's commitment to leveraging their vast information and technology ecosystem, to gain revenue by initiating a paywall.
In other businesses, or media, this is not so easy, and eminently unworkable. This morning for example, The Drudge Report linked a Washington Post story about the Justice Department monitoring emails and keycard entries of Fox News reporter James Rosen. If this story was behind a paywall, like so many, Matt Drudge and others on twitter or various social media outlets would simply find another story to link. The Post probably wants the traffic anyway, for impression serving of their ads.
In horse racing it makes sense.
Data, statistics, technology and its assorted spin offs is owned by entities. This has value and handicappers will pay for added value. That they sign up for DRF's betting interface, where the DRF can make anywhere from 10 or 12 percent to 20 percent plus on each of your dollars bet today, all the better.
With horse racing losing market and betting share, we often believe the sport is on its last legs. There is some truth to that of course, but it is still a $11 billion betting business. That's a huge market and DRF, rightly, wants a share of it for the work they do, the information they offer and the technology they invest in. It's not their job to grow horse racing, it's their job to make money.
- For the past year or so, Hartig and DRF have given away much of this coverage for free online. But as DRF pivots into even more specialized coverage designed to help gamblers improve their ROI, Hartig has come to feel he’s offering a valuable service for which users should pay. In July, DRF will launch a paid content area of the site. “It will piss off a lot of folks,” he acknowledges. “But it costs a lot of money to invest in this editorial, and in the technology to give you real-time information.”
In other businesses, or media, this is not so easy, and eminently unworkable. This morning for example, The Drudge Report linked a Washington Post story about the Justice Department monitoring emails and keycard entries of Fox News reporter James Rosen. If this story was behind a paywall, like so many, Matt Drudge and others on twitter or various social media outlets would simply find another story to link. The Post probably wants the traffic anyway, for impression serving of their ads.
In horse racing it makes sense.
Data, statistics, technology and its assorted spin offs is owned by entities. This has value and handicappers will pay for added value. That they sign up for DRF's betting interface, where the DRF can make anywhere from 10 or 12 percent to 20 percent plus on each of your dollars bet today, all the better.
With horse racing losing market and betting share, we often believe the sport is on its last legs. There is some truth to that of course, but it is still a $11 billion betting business. That's a huge market and DRF, rightly, wants a share of it for the work they do, the information they offer and the technology they invest in. It's not their job to grow horse racing, it's their job to make money.
Sunday, May 19, 2013
Monday Morning Qu-Orb-erbacking
The morning after a loss at 3-5. It's a tough place to be in racing.
Orb, who many (me included) thought had the best shot to win the Triple Crown in a long time, as we all know, sputtered yesterday and came a terrible fourth. Yesterday and this morning the narrative developed that it was premature to think he had a huge shot to run the table, and do something not done in 35 years.
"The proof is in the pudding, he lost". Take that.
I think that's revisionist, and somewhat folly.
Each horse race is a series of percentages, a probability. Knowing what we know about Triple Crown losers in the past is the variables that befell them. Namely:
1) Did they beat who they are going to have to beat?
2) Can mother nature trip them up?
3) Do they have physical issues?
4) Do the connections know what they're doing?
and the Granddaddy of them all:
5) Can they get 12 furlongs at the Belmont?
Analyzing each of these with Orb, the probabilities said they were just fine.
Did Orb beat who he is going to have to beat? Sure he did. The new entrant to the Preakness was Departing, who was beaten by several in Louisiana who Orb trounced, and didn't exactly have 107 Beyers going for him. For the Belmont, Dreaming of Julia was talked about, who just lost a 9 furlong race at Churchill. There was no horse like Bodemeister who people thought was better after the Derby. There was no Red Bullet. There was just Orb and the horse's that Orb had beaten.
Can mother nature trip him up? Well, since he just jogged in the soup, there goes that one.
Does he have physical issues? A year ago at this time, vet records were being released, talk of hyperbaric chambers talked about and more, with last year's winner I'll Have Another. With Big Brown one wondered if his feet were made of glass. With Orb? Sound as a dollar bill, so it seems.
Do the connections know what they're doing? Um, do we have to answer this one?
Can he get 12 furlongs? People smarter than me thought it was actually a better distance for him, and if you watched the Florida Derby, or the Kentucky Derby, Orb looked like he could've went around again. He should relish Big Sandy, and the distance.
So yes, the offshore odds said he had a better shot than many, including Big Brown. The conditional parlay, at 3-5 and a probable 1-5 said similar.
Horse's lose all the time at 3-5 or 4-5. They have bad days, they aren't good enough, they get a bad trip, they have a cough, they bounce, or have 100 other reasons or issues.
The fact he lost plays no role in thinking beforehand he had a great shot to accomplish this huge task. He lost. These things happen.
Orb, who many (me included) thought had the best shot to win the Triple Crown in a long time, as we all know, sputtered yesterday and came a terrible fourth. Yesterday and this morning the narrative developed that it was premature to think he had a huge shot to run the table, and do something not done in 35 years.
"The proof is in the pudding, he lost". Take that.
I think that's revisionist, and somewhat folly.
Each horse race is a series of percentages, a probability. Knowing what we know about Triple Crown losers in the past is the variables that befell them. Namely:
1) Did they beat who they are going to have to beat?
2) Can mother nature trip them up?
3) Do they have physical issues?
4) Do the connections know what they're doing?
and the Granddaddy of them all:
5) Can they get 12 furlongs at the Belmont?
Analyzing each of these with Orb, the probabilities said they were just fine.
Did Orb beat who he is going to have to beat? Sure he did. The new entrant to the Preakness was Departing, who was beaten by several in Louisiana who Orb trounced, and didn't exactly have 107 Beyers going for him. For the Belmont, Dreaming of Julia was talked about, who just lost a 9 furlong race at Churchill. There was no horse like Bodemeister who people thought was better after the Derby. There was no Red Bullet. There was just Orb and the horse's that Orb had beaten.
Can mother nature trip him up? Well, since he just jogged in the soup, there goes that one.
Does he have physical issues? A year ago at this time, vet records were being released, talk of hyperbaric chambers talked about and more, with last year's winner I'll Have Another. With Big Brown one wondered if his feet were made of glass. With Orb? Sound as a dollar bill, so it seems.
Do the connections know what they're doing? Um, do we have to answer this one?
Can he get 12 furlongs? People smarter than me thought it was actually a better distance for him, and if you watched the Florida Derby, or the Kentucky Derby, Orb looked like he could've went around again. He should relish Big Sandy, and the distance.
So yes, the offshore odds said he had a better shot than many, including Big Brown. The conditional parlay, at 3-5 and a probable 1-5 said similar.
Horse's lose all the time at 3-5 or 4-5. They have bad days, they aren't good enough, they get a bad trip, they have a cough, they bounce, or have 100 other reasons or issues.
The fact he lost plays no role in thinking beforehand he had a great shot to accomplish this huge task. He lost. These things happen.
Saturday Harness Roundup
Last night at the Meadowlands and Woodbine, several big, interesting miles were recorded. It was quite the evening for those who stayed around after the Preakness Stakes.
At the M, the handle was just over $3 million, which (considering the stock racing) was not up to snuff.
The race of the night was the Cutler, where no one could get by Sevruga. It was a blanket finish, providing us with one of harness racing's greatest win photos of the year:
I like the way Guccio has been raced so far this year. After he seasons a little bit, we might see something special from him. He can close like a train, in a sport where closers are at a supreme disadvantage.
The race, for interest, of the evening was the Meadowlands Maturity. Sweet Lou got a nice trip and nailed Warrawee Needy at the wire. It seems Burke is wanting to trip out Lou this year and I think that's wise. In his first two starts of the year he has paraded sound, and miles and trips like that help keep it that way.
The disappointment was the all world speed horse Hurrikane Kingcole. McDermott must be pulling his hair out because the horse again looked like he bounced. They have to find a way to trip that horse out, because he simply cannot go huge wound-up speed and come back and do it again. I'd love to see him buried for half the year, week in and week out. I am a huge fan of this horse.
Bolt the Duer looked happy and sound to me last evening. I think Mark and Peter would be happy with that performance off the bench.
My predictions sometimes suck, but it doesn't stop me from making them: The leader of the four year old pack, I think, will be A Rock n' Roll Dance. That is simply the best I've seen that horse look since the Meadowlands Pace. He was willing, paced sound, and made a tremendous first impression. If he is not beat up, watch out for this horse (a horse I still believe, due to his "grade I wins" should've been 3YO Pacer of the year).
Amadeus was okay winning the 3YO pacing stake, I thought, in his return back for Takter. He looked a little hitchy gaited to me, but it's only one day, and one start.
Ditto for Iluvthenightlife and Wake Up Peter. Solid debuts.
Over at Woodbine, this time of year is amazingly odd. Spring brings with it some rain and warmer temps, and sometimes it means a tight, hard surface. If you are handicapping Woodbine, ensure you chalk last night up to a tricked up track. Those horses did not go that fast, in my opinion, and 25.3 last quarters are more like 26.3's.
Having said that, former North America Cup winner Up the Credit made a wonderful pre race appearance and won in a fast time. He looked great.
I saw an interview with Tony Alagna, and I have heard similar from other old time horsemen in the past - we see inconsistent performances by horses who race too much, too hard. One week great, one week bad type of stuff. You'll often see this pattern with horses with 35 or more starts per year - as Alagna put it, with these types, they are telling you they need a vacation, because they are saving themselves by not going 100% each week (he was alluding to his horse in last night's 8th race).
It might be a little different with the four year olds this year, because they likely will not have 35 starts, but management is still needed. The trick is to find a way to space the races out enough whereby they can have the proper recovery time, while keeping them keen. With the speeds we're seeing this will be paramount for all the horsemen (and drivers) this season. One way or another, buckle up, it should be great. Remember: Close to a half dozen top colts from last year who could go very fast, have not even started up yet.
Have a nice Sunday everyone.
At the M, the handle was just over $3 million, which (considering the stock racing) was not up to snuff.
The race of the night was the Cutler, where no one could get by Sevruga. It was a blanket finish, providing us with one of harness racing's greatest win photos of the year:
The race, for interest, of the evening was the Meadowlands Maturity. Sweet Lou got a nice trip and nailed Warrawee Needy at the wire. It seems Burke is wanting to trip out Lou this year and I think that's wise. In his first two starts of the year he has paraded sound, and miles and trips like that help keep it that way.
The disappointment was the all world speed horse Hurrikane Kingcole. McDermott must be pulling his hair out because the horse again looked like he bounced. They have to find a way to trip that horse out, because he simply cannot go huge wound-up speed and come back and do it again. I'd love to see him buried for half the year, week in and week out. I am a huge fan of this horse.
Bolt the Duer looked happy and sound to me last evening. I think Mark and Peter would be happy with that performance off the bench.
My predictions sometimes suck, but it doesn't stop me from making them: The leader of the four year old pack, I think, will be A Rock n' Roll Dance. That is simply the best I've seen that horse look since the Meadowlands Pace. He was willing, paced sound, and made a tremendous first impression. If he is not beat up, watch out for this horse (a horse I still believe, due to his "grade I wins" should've been 3YO Pacer of the year).
Amadeus was okay winning the 3YO pacing stake, I thought, in his return back for Takter. He looked a little hitchy gaited to me, but it's only one day, and one start.
Ditto for Iluvthenightlife and Wake Up Peter. Solid debuts.
Over at Woodbine, this time of year is amazingly odd. Spring brings with it some rain and warmer temps, and sometimes it means a tight, hard surface. If you are handicapping Woodbine, ensure you chalk last night up to a tricked up track. Those horses did not go that fast, in my opinion, and 25.3 last quarters are more like 26.3's.
Having said that, former North America Cup winner Up the Credit made a wonderful pre race appearance and won in a fast time. He looked great.
I saw an interview with Tony Alagna, and I have heard similar from other old time horsemen in the past - we see inconsistent performances by horses who race too much, too hard. One week great, one week bad type of stuff. You'll often see this pattern with horses with 35 or more starts per year - as Alagna put it, with these types, they are telling you they need a vacation, because they are saving themselves by not going 100% each week (he was alluding to his horse in last night's 8th race).
It might be a little different with the four year olds this year, because they likely will not have 35 starts, but management is still needed. The trick is to find a way to space the races out enough whereby they can have the proper recovery time, while keeping them keen. With the speeds we're seeing this will be paramount for all the horsemen (and drivers) this season. One way or another, buckle up, it should be great. Remember: Close to a half dozen top colts from last year who could go very fast, have not even started up yet.
Have a nice Sunday everyone.
Saturday, May 18, 2013
Sometimes You Just Never Know
A horse who wins at 8.5 furlongs, 9 furlongs and 10 furlongs with authority. A horse who looks magnificently sound, who strides out in his last work like a Champion. He's got a great trainer and a great rider. The whole world seems to be cheering for him and he's 3-5 to boot.
But he races poorly.
Sometimes you just never know.
Orb, obviously a fine horse, didn't fire. Mylute, who (with respect) is not in the same zip code in terms of talent, not only closes from behind him, but widens on him. It'smyluckyday made the Florida Derby look like a mirage.
I guess the excuses can and may come. He had a trip like Union Rags had in last year's Florida Derby, which was (wrongly, in my opinion) blamed for his poor performance (and started the 'replace the rider' rumblings), but it probably wasn't that. People can talk form cycles and see a chink in the armor, but I doubt it was that either. Sometimes horse's just have a bad day. And I think Orb had a bad day.
As for the winner, the speed that everyone was speaking about didn't happen, and from pre-race commentary, that could've been deduced. The winner took advantage of that. Oxbow was a bet back horse for a lot of people as well, because he was the only horse that engaged the speed in the Derby who wasn't screaming with lactic acid build up with 400 yards to go. His Derby was a good performance.
What can you say. It's disappointing. It's kind of shocking. But such is horse racing.
Notes:
The undercard was somewhat underwhelming with all the scratches. Players that I know get stoked for the Derby undercard as much as they do the Derby. In my opinion, Pimlico should work harder on their pick 4 and 5 sequences come Preakness day. It's important to bigger players. You need them energized each year, like they are for the Derby.
Speed was super on the Turf, which made the pick 4 easier. Pianist looked like an obvious leader. Skyring was going, too. Both won and paid well.
Speed was better on the dirt than it had been too, I believe. Although in some races they sure didn't go much.
Rudy Rodriguez who can't buy a win at Belmont, won three races the last two days at Pimlico.
Bob Baffert's horse, Zee Bros, hit a wall the last 110 yards in the Derby trial, but before that point in his mile, looked like a monster. Today, with the turnback, the horse was a gift. I say that after the race. I didn't bet him, which is my bad!
Enjoy your Saturday night everyone. I'm still an Orb fan and can't wait for his next race. I'm sure you are too.
But he races poorly.
Sometimes you just never know.
Orb, obviously a fine horse, didn't fire. Mylute, who (with respect) is not in the same zip code in terms of talent, not only closes from behind him, but widens on him. It'smyluckyday made the Florida Derby look like a mirage.
I guess the excuses can and may come. He had a trip like Union Rags had in last year's Florida Derby, which was (wrongly, in my opinion) blamed for his poor performance (and started the 'replace the rider' rumblings), but it probably wasn't that. People can talk form cycles and see a chink in the armor, but I doubt it was that either. Sometimes horse's just have a bad day. And I think Orb had a bad day.
As for the winner, the speed that everyone was speaking about didn't happen, and from pre-race commentary, that could've been deduced. The winner took advantage of that. Oxbow was a bet back horse for a lot of people as well, because he was the only horse that engaged the speed in the Derby who wasn't screaming with lactic acid build up with 400 yards to go. His Derby was a good performance.
What can you say. It's disappointing. It's kind of shocking. But such is horse racing.
Notes:
The undercard was somewhat underwhelming with all the scratches. Players that I know get stoked for the Derby undercard as much as they do the Derby. In my opinion, Pimlico should work harder on their pick 4 and 5 sequences come Preakness day. It's important to bigger players. You need them energized each year, like they are for the Derby.
Speed was super on the Turf, which made the pick 4 easier. Pianist looked like an obvious leader. Skyring was going, too. Both won and paid well.
Speed was better on the dirt than it had been too, I believe. Although in some races they sure didn't go much.
Rudy Rodriguez who can't buy a win at Belmont, won three races the last two days at Pimlico.
Bob Baffert's horse, Zee Bros, hit a wall the last 110 yards in the Derby trial, but before that point in his mile, looked like a monster. Today, with the turnback, the horse was a gift. I say that after the race. I didn't bet him, which is my bad!
Enjoy your Saturday night everyone. I'm still an Orb fan and can't wait for his next race. I'm sure you are too.
Preakness Day & Some Notes
Well, today's the day. Whether you're looking forward to watching drunk kids getting thrown out of the infield, Beadle bashing, or to do something wild and wacky - bet and watch the second leg of the Triple Crown, there's something for you.
Orb might be fair odds at 7-1 in some blogs, but he looks like the horse to beat by most.
The Pimlico surface has been kind to closers, and on paper there is a great deal of speed.
However, as most pace models aren't showing, there is a strong chance the speed might not show up as expected.
Itsmyluckyday and Goldencents are coming off poor performances, so the pedal won't (shouldn't) be to the metal for those two. Titletown Five, the best E number on paper, is supposedly grabbing leather. The other two Lukas's probably won't gut each other either. We might not see a brisk pace.
Since Orb has shown he can race up close or as a deep closer, perhaps it doesn't matter either way.
If I were betting a speed ticket to beat Orb, I would probably try one with Oxbow on top and hope for an easy lead. But I honestly probably won't be wagering this race. I will be watching, like most, as a fan.
I have not done the requisite work on the undercard, and am not overly stoked to play it today, but from what I have seen there may be some opportunities. Hardened Wildcat looks interesting in the pick 4 sequence; I don't mind Posiedan's Warrior at 10-1ML. Pianist seems to be in a nice spot. I'm not thrilled with the outside posts on the Pimlico Turf Course.
Notes:
Derek Simon wrote another bang-up blog piece at Twinspires. This one on Orb and former Preakness winners.
Do yourself a favor and check out Bill Finley's feature on an obscure harness racetrack in Eastern Kentucky (pdf). I half expected to see Deputy Marshall Givens in one of Bill's photos. Fascinating place, neat article.
North American racehorses are given prerace which consists of, on average, 5 and a half needles. So says Bill Finley's piece via Rick Arthur in the TDN (pdf).
Tonight at the Meadowlands, the $100k Maturity. Fantastic race.
Last evening at the M, the stakes colts came out to play, and one of the best looking maiden trotters I have seen in some time raced. He stormed home in under 27 seconds and looked like he possessed brilliance. His name is Smiling Eli.
What's missing this year from stakes season? 149 and 150 qualifiers. Thank goodness.
Have a great Saturday everyone. And let's go Orb!
Orb might be fair odds at 7-1 in some blogs, but he looks like the horse to beat by most.
The Pimlico surface has been kind to closers, and on paper there is a great deal of speed.
However, as most pace models aren't showing, there is a strong chance the speed might not show up as expected.
Itsmyluckyday and Goldencents are coming off poor performances, so the pedal won't (shouldn't) be to the metal for those two. Titletown Five, the best E number on paper, is supposedly grabbing leather. The other two Lukas's probably won't gut each other either. We might not see a brisk pace.
Since Orb has shown he can race up close or as a deep closer, perhaps it doesn't matter either way.
If I were betting a speed ticket to beat Orb, I would probably try one with Oxbow on top and hope for an easy lead. But I honestly probably won't be wagering this race. I will be watching, like most, as a fan.
I have not done the requisite work on the undercard, and am not overly stoked to play it today, but from what I have seen there may be some opportunities. Hardened Wildcat looks interesting in the pick 4 sequence; I don't mind Posiedan's Warrior at 10-1ML. Pianist seems to be in a nice spot. I'm not thrilled with the outside posts on the Pimlico Turf Course.
Notes:
Derek Simon wrote another bang-up blog piece at Twinspires. This one on Orb and former Preakness winners.
Do yourself a favor and check out Bill Finley's feature on an obscure harness racetrack in Eastern Kentucky (pdf). I half expected to see Deputy Marshall Givens in one of Bill's photos. Fascinating place, neat article.
North American racehorses are given prerace which consists of, on average, 5 and a half needles. So says Bill Finley's piece via Rick Arthur in the TDN (pdf).
Tonight at the Meadowlands, the $100k Maturity. Fantastic race.
Last evening at the M, the stakes colts came out to play, and one of the best looking maiden trotters I have seen in some time raced. He stormed home in under 27 seconds and looked like he possessed brilliance. His name is Smiling Eli.
What's missing this year from stakes season? 149 and 150 qualifiers. Thank goodness.
Have a great Saturday everyone. And let's go Orb!
Thursday, May 16, 2013
A Marketing Percentage From Subsidy Cash? And Some Preakness.
Probably one of the funniest things I've noticed of late is the "Petition to Stop Tweeting Horses" that's live at Whitehouse.gov.
In Canada, with slots, it was proposed that 5% of the purse share of slots go to marketing & bettor/fan development, back in 2009, with the Racing Development and Sustainability Plan. Some factions deemed this "too much", "crazy" and "a laughing stock". Well, Canterbury Park and racing in Minnesota in general, has their plan set up, and lo and behold:
Other businesses spend and spend to get people in the seats, or in their place of business. Casino's spend upwards of 20%. Bingo of all things spend close to 30%. Racing? Spending 5% is like pulling teeth. Good for Canterbury.
Not too many folks are willing to fade Orb this weekend, and rightfully so I guess. If there's something the past has taught us, it's that where the Derby is a crap shoot, form from the Derby holds over very well with the 14 day wheelback of the Preakness. It's usually a chalkfest.
Orb is susceptible to what all horses are: Bad trips, a cough, a bad ride, not liking a surface or fifty other things, but fading him at anywhere near an okay price is probably not an ROI positive situation. Add the fact that he galloped out well, and looked fit as a fiddle and happy as a clam with his work on Monday, it's hard not to believe he will perform like so many have. Even mega-Derby winner bombs like Mine That Bird, or Charismatic have.
I have not done the work yet, but this year a couple that may jump up are the steam Departing, and Itsmyluckyday. The latter I believe hated that surface and the soup (he was not keen at all on it, and he is a keen horse who likes to race), and I will probably take him on top of Departing and Oxbow as my "non-Orb" supers, trying to get paid. But it's not like I'm confident taking it.
Have a nice Thursday everyone.
- We ask that Twitter be restricted to only humans and large,
multinational corporations. And parody accounts. Some of those are
hilarious. Tweeting horses minimize the contributions to the
discourse on racing from actual humans. And corporations. And sometimes
sports networks.
In Canada, with slots, it was proposed that 5% of the purse share of slots go to marketing & bettor/fan development, back in 2009, with the Racing Development and Sustainability Plan. Some factions deemed this "too much", "crazy" and "a laughing stock". Well, Canterbury Park and racing in Minnesota in general, has their plan set up, and lo and behold:
- Under the provisions of the agreement, the Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux Community will provide $75 million over 10 years to fund purses. An additional $6 million is being set aside for marketing initiatives designed to increase attendance and handle at Canterbury.
Other businesses spend and spend to get people in the seats, or in their place of business. Casino's spend upwards of 20%. Bingo of all things spend close to 30%. Racing? Spending 5% is like pulling teeth. Good for Canterbury.
Not too many folks are willing to fade Orb this weekend, and rightfully so I guess. If there's something the past has taught us, it's that where the Derby is a crap shoot, form from the Derby holds over very well with the 14 day wheelback of the Preakness. It's usually a chalkfest.
Orb is susceptible to what all horses are: Bad trips, a cough, a bad ride, not liking a surface or fifty other things, but fading him at anywhere near an okay price is probably not an ROI positive situation. Add the fact that he galloped out well, and looked fit as a fiddle and happy as a clam with his work on Monday, it's hard not to believe he will perform like so many have. Even mega-Derby winner bombs like Mine That Bird, or Charismatic have.
I have not done the work yet, but this year a couple that may jump up are the steam Departing, and Itsmyluckyday. The latter I believe hated that surface and the soup (he was not keen at all on it, and he is a keen horse who likes to race), and I will probably take him on top of Departing and Oxbow as my "non-Orb" supers, trying to get paid. But it's not like I'm confident taking it.
Have a nice Thursday everyone.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Sharp Cookies Serve Up Some Preakness Fare
There are some sharp cookies out there in horse racing land.
One, Dan Needham wrote an incredibly interesting piece about Preakness viewership, with several great arguments. It's a must read. Funnily enough, it is probably the only horse racing blog article retweeted by someone with 750,000 followers.
The second sharp cookie in today's horse racing bakery is my pal @keenegal:
We usually rely on tangential storylines with Afleet Alex or Funny Cide (and I do not belittle them). This storyline is pure horse racing.
This year's Preakness might not have the sheer brilliance and magnificence of a filly trying to stop a Derby winner. It might not have a Sunday Silence, Easy Goer rivalry, but it has a lot going for it. I will be glued this year and I feel no matter what, I will not be disappointed.
One, Dan Needham wrote an incredibly interesting piece about Preakness viewership, with several great arguments. It's a must read. Funnily enough, it is probably the only horse racing blog article retweeted by someone with 750,000 followers.
The second sharp cookie in today's horse racing bakery is my pal @keenegal:
@pullthepocket @thorotrends I think Departing as Orb’s “nemesis” needs to be played up more.Things are too kumbaya for great tv and sportsI think she is so right. As Shanklin wrote about, that we linked yesterday, the storyline between Orb and Departing is as compelling as anything in our sport, and many others. It is so horse racing. It is exactly what this sport was always about, and for purists like me and many of you, what it will always be about. This is horse racing, not horse coronation, and even if it hits someone in the pocketbook, you bet that person or persons will try and beat you.
— Melissa Nolan(@KeeneGal) May 15, 2013
We usually rely on tangential storylines with Afleet Alex or Funny Cide (and I do not belittle them). This storyline is pure horse racing.
This year's Preakness might not have the sheer brilliance and magnificence of a filly trying to stop a Derby winner. It might not have a Sunday Silence, Easy Goer rivalry, but it has a lot going for it. I will be glued this year and I feel no matter what, I will not be disappointed.
Ontario Horse Racing Policy Evolves
It's been about fifteen months, but the gaming strategy in Ontario is finally evolving; some might say, as it should've done before any hard decisions were made. In Monday's Globe and Mail, Premier Kathleen Wynne seems to be backtracking:
That last part is the sticking point. The citizenry, through their municipal elected officials, seem to want more gaming in their backyards about as much as having an appendectomy. This plan is not selling, and when a major plank of the plan isn't selling, the whole house can come down pretty quickly.
For her part, the Premier appears to see the writing on the wall, and she also (for political reasons maybe, but who cares, that's life) wants to right some wrongs regarding our business - horse racing. She alluded earlier this spring that horse racing should be amalgamated with the OLG - much needed for our sports' future - and this week she took an added step:
Horse racing can benefit in a number of ways, not the least of which could be a Woodbine casino. Its chances go up immeasurably, I believe.
Horse racing needs this, and so it appears does the government. Fifteen months ago there was a policy, some might think written on the back of a napkin. Fifteen months later, this policy has evolved, and horse racing is in a much better position than it was a year ago. Much better.
The future won't be filled with $50,000 purses at tracks with $100,000 handle. We won't have 17 tracks racing in Ontario. But what we will have, it seems, is a fair shot.
- Ms. Wynne is questioning the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp.’s privatization and expansion strategy endorsed by her predecessors, according to government sources. She is no fan of the proposal to build a downtown Toronto casino, the sources said.
That last part is the sticking point. The citizenry, through their municipal elected officials, seem to want more gaming in their backyards about as much as having an appendectomy. This plan is not selling, and when a major plank of the plan isn't selling, the whole house can come down pretty quickly.
For her part, the Premier appears to see the writing on the wall, and she also (for political reasons maybe, but who cares, that's life) wants to right some wrongs regarding our business - horse racing. She alluded earlier this spring that horse racing should be amalgamated with the OLG - much needed for our sports' future - and this week she took an added step:
- To stem the political backlash, the government appointed a panel of three former cabinet ministers, Conservative John Snobelen, Liberal John Wilkinson and New Democrat Elmer Buchanan, last June to review funding for the horse-racing industry. The ex-politicians delivered their final report in the fall, but Ms. Wynne is now turning to the panel again, asking it – not the OLG – to take the lead on developing a plan to integrate horse racing with the province’s gambling strategy in time for the 2014 racing season.
Horse racing can benefit in a number of ways, not the least of which could be a Woodbine casino. Its chances go up immeasurably, I believe.
Horse racing needs this, and so it appears does the government. Fifteen months ago there was a policy, some might think written on the back of a napkin. Fifteen months later, this policy has evolved, and horse racing is in a much better position than it was a year ago. Much better.
The future won't be filled with $50,000 purses at tracks with $100,000 handle. We won't have 17 tracks racing in Ontario. But what we will have, it seems, is a fair shot.
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