Monday, August 22, 2016

#Chrome

As most everyone knows, California Chrome had yet another smashing victory on Saturday in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar.

Here are a few random thoughts on this lazy Monday morning.

With a slightly slow pace and Chrome getting things his own way, we read a few thoughts about how 'if' a rider did this, or 'if' someone did that, the result may have been different. I don't really get that. This horse was way too good for them on Saturday.

What's with the Dubai trip? The two best horses this season, certainly in the handicap division, are Frosted and California Chrome. The gazillion hour flight must freshen them up.

With big handles when he races, a lot of buzz, and his rightful place at the head of the class, California Chrome has proven to me that longevity means something in this sport. Chrome is entering Zenyatta territory in popularity, in my view, and those were and are the two most popular horses this century. American Pharoah, some thought a savior of sort when winning the elusive Triple Crown, drove column inches in a world where no one reads column inches anymore. Chrome and Zenyatta have a following, which is the result of frequent excellence over time.

The #Bringhomechrome facebook cult group might've had a point and we were all too dumb to listen. The Ascot trip seems like a distant memory. This horse's stud career is just fine. He's a five year old who is winning in dominant fashion and in good figures against nice dirt horses at home. He barely had to leave the barn.

Cj shows us a great career, and it's not over yet. I am happy he ran a nice figure on synth and turf so no one can say he was a surface specialist of some sort after only one or two tries.

I -- like a bunch of you -- have always thought that American Pharoah was the faster horse at virtually any distance, but we might have to rethink that, don't we? This horse seems faster than ever right now, and his speed figures are very comparable to the Triple Crown winner's.

"When they ask about Chrome's legacy, I'm just hoping everybody can put everything in perspective," majority owner Perry Martin said, referencing runs the horse has made in which he lost ground. "If we were running him differently, he would own several records and people would think of him a little differently."

The more I read Perry Martin quotes, the more I realize I have no idea what he's talking about. His horse is number one in the NTRA poll, has won a $10M race, finished up a Triple Crown season with a spirited run in the Belmont with a bad wheel, has won on three surfaces at many tracks, has raced for years, while being in training for virtually his entire life. He's considered one of the fastest, saltiest, toughest dirt horses this century. Everyone loves him. If people thought of him "differently" they'd have to think he sucked.

Odds that the Kegasus Cup gets raced and Chrome is the favorite as a six year old? I wouldn't put it past him to be sound, racing, and the chalk.

Enjoy your Monday everyone.

Thursday, August 11, 2016

The Tale of Two Marketing Strategies Speaks Volumes

Racing, gambling game or sport? That question really doesn't matter much, although everyone seems to love wringing their hands over it.

Football is a sport, racing is a sport, but gambling happens on both.

The resellers of each product in the betting space are as a betting game only, but they sure have different strategies.

Pinnaclesports is an online sportsbook that's been around forever, and its been extremely successful.

Here's a snapshot of their marketing on the web.




Meanwhile, over at Xpressbet, a horse betting medium ....

Pinnacle knows exactly who it is and what it does. They market accordingly. 

Racing has an identity crisis, along with the simple fact that with high juice it has trouble attracting the same clientele Pinnacle attracts.  

I certainly am not picking on Xpressbet, or any other reseller. They're trying to attract eyeballs in a gambling game with fewer and fewer of them and are using any means necessary. It is what it is.

Is horse racing a gambling game or sport?  If you look at the marketing, I don't think anyone knows. 

Sunday, August 7, 2016

A Quizzically Odd Hambletonian Day

An interesting Hambo Day is in the books. The more I think about it, the more I scratch my head. It was a pretty wild day.

The 16 race smorgasbord wasn't quite as well-received by bettors with preliminary handle down about 8% or so, after factoring in last year's Super High Five carryover. This was a little bit strange, because it looked like a fairly good card, to my eyes.

The track was a bit quizzical, too, and maybe this played into the handle.

I don't think there was a strong bias, but I think it played odd - almost "fair", which we don't see in harness racing much as a speed game. If you went 54 and came home in 56, closers did well, like you'd think they're supposed to, while if you went 56 and came home in 55, the front end was fine, like it's supposed to be. The only wire to wire effort that bucked the trend was probably Darlinonthebeach, who was stung in 53.2 and came home in 56 to hold on. It was 1985 again.

Adding to the quizzical nature of the track, some horses performed oddly, making the whole day (and the track), increasingly hard to decipher.

Leaders like Polak A in the first stunk off stiff fractions, and was chalk (the two hole horse was second at 17-1), Snowstorm Hanover was awful (the two hole horse won) and Wings of Royalty was horrid, off a 56 half (the three hole horse won).  Those were horses who raced bad, having nothing to do with the track. I'm really glad I bet those last two hard, by the way.

Southwind Frank was two fingers and sound last week, yet this week, in his elim, he was rammy and went way too fast, caught late by the eventual winner. Then he was steppy in the final; an odd two races for him. Two races we have not seen from him this season. By the way, Yannick is quite the driver. I am not sure how he kept that horse trotting his last quarter, to almost win the whole thing.

Bar Hopping looked incredible in his heat, taking things gate to wire. He gets the same trip as the heavy chalk in the final, and stops. I bet Tim and Jimmy are scratching their heads just like we are.

In an interview driver Scott Zeron was asked what he was thinking at the head of the lane with Marion Marauder and he said "I was confident, and I thought 'I hope he isn't sick'".I think that was prophetic for a lot of horses yesterday.

Always B Miki didn't train last week according to his trainer, and I think it showed just how hard it is to go 1:47 off time off. He was stung, challenged hard by a quality animal, and came a decent fourth. It spawned a set of nice show prices, (like in race two, in a continuation of the odd day). The other horse off a stale date - Freaky Feet Pete - didn't really seem like himself either.

Several horses seemed to break, for no apparent reason. Windowshopper, sitting in a gapped fifth, ran as the now horse in the Oaks. Honor and Serve, and several others all broke. A bunch of horses did not look comfortable at all on that track.

A horse we've been trying to hit for awhile - Katie Said - broke in the Lady Liberty, got off last and somehow came third. The Ron Adams horse won again, from the 12, a post some think is poison.

The set of results, I think, were the oddest I've seen in some time. Whether it was the surface, sickness, allergies, or some horses just not right after racing tough miles all summer, I don't know, but it was pretty darn strange. I don't even know who to bet back.

As for the big winner - Marion Marauder - it was well-deserved. Those connections have let that horse tell them what he wanted to do, not made to do what they wanted him to do, and they were rewarded for it. I don't think you'd see a more polished, sounder looking trotter on the racetrack. That was a great training and driving job.

No matter the result, no matter the track, or racing luck, or horses stopped by allergies, or sickness, or whatever it may be, Hambo Day is still a remarkable day for harness fans. I'm glad it happens each year, and I hope it lasts forever.

Have a great rest of the weekend everyone.



Saturday, August 6, 2016

Happy Hambletonian Day - Notes, Links

It's here, welcome to Hambo Day.

It's 16 races; trots, paces, mixed distances, short fields, big fields. And some are very interesting.

As most know, heavy doses of chalk can and do happen on days like this often in harness. And make no mistake, there are some very good looking favorites. But this card feels a little different to me. I think some of these chalk - even of the heavy variety - have a chance to go down. I always like watching Hambo Day - from start to finish. But this one really intrigues me from a betting perspective.

Anyhoo, some links:

Thoughts on why Hambo Day is a great day, a column. 

Free program link.

Free video link in HD.

Selections from VFTG.

Selections and thoughts at Betfair; including trading horses like Southwind Frank.

Selections from those "expert" folks. I suck at being an expert, but there you go.

Hashtag is #Hambo16 for you people who twitter, like Donald Trump; or someone who works for him, if they recently took his password away. 

Have a great day everyone.


Friday, August 5, 2016

Clowns to the Left of Me, Jokers to the Right

New York passed a daily fantasy sports bill this week, but it was a little more than that. It also, at the behest of one legislator (at likely the behest of you know who - old time racing), eliminated horse racing contest players
  •  "I could see a horseplayer going to a fantasy site and playing there because they're real horses, real jockeys, real tracks, and doing whatever handicapping they're going to do there. It would take away from the pari-mutuel handle."
The studies cited by this pol, showing that this happens and was the correct move, are absent. Because they don't exist.

But, using a little common sense, or actually  talking to customers, you can learn something.

Contest play is a staple for some, just like exchange play is for others. More conduits you have - more ways to play the sport - the more people you have looking at your product. And when people are looking at your product, it's a gateway to lifetime revenue.

This past weekend there was a "contest" at Del Mar. It attracted 140 or so players, all there for one reason - to win the contest, and to get invited to another contest, the Breeders Cup Betting Challenge. One of my friends flew in from Seattle for it. Another from half way across the country.

The bankroll for this event - to be bet into the pools - was $5,000. So, at Del Mar, $700,000 of bankroll on a Saturday and Sunday were churned right into the pools, because of a contest. If each player rolled the bankroll over three times, over $2 million was bet, at 21% boat. Del Mar got back about $400,000 of revenue.

If this "contest" wasn't around, some of these players might've taken the day off. They might be long gone from betting horse racing, because they found something better to do with their time. Instead, they were engaged, handicapping, betting, and promoting the sport to others.

Contests - big or small, online or real money - are an important ecosystem for horse racing. At a very small cost. 

I don't have a clue why this sport thinks that eliminating people from engaging and playing your product is a good policy. Seriously, what business that is dependent on high volume and velocity  - or any business really - has grown with fewer customers? But time and time again, whether it be with takeout hikes, blocking signals, or trying to shut down games or sites which promote the sport and keep people engaged, they continually lean on this policy.

With handle down 40% or 50% in real terms, you'd think they'd try something new, wouldn't you?

Enjoy your Friday everyone.


Friday, July 29, 2016

Horse Racing as an Olympic Sport - Pie in the Sky but Compelling

Over the years we have heard several arguments for horse racing to be an Olympic sport, and despite the numerous potholes, some of them really do make sense. Horse racing is global, there are racetracks in almost every major Olympic country, and if equestrian is a sport, why not racing?

Most believe the biggest stumbling block is the sport itself. It's too fractured, doesn't have uniform rules, and would a horse, owner and trainer race for a medal instead of say $12 million in the super-Pegasus Cup?

If golf's reasoning for becoming an Olympic sport means something, perhaps it's something the sport might want to look a little further at.

From the Olympic issue of Golf Magazine:

"Becoming an Olympic sport can and does lead to increase governmental funding and the creation or expansion of programs to attract new players.."

The article goes on to look at the Olympics influence on tennis. In 1988, when Olympic tennis was passed, the sport was on the decline. In '88 147 countries were members of a tennis federation, now 211 are.

"The Olympic effect as broadened tennis significantly," said Barbara Travers of the International Tennis Federation.

Olympic horse racing is pie in the sky, yes. But, it's difficult for governments to ban a beloved Olympic sport, and when they're funding something that has more than a "we fund a sport for rich people" narrative, it's positive. As well, countries with small breeding operations - or none at all - might see a few more dollars go their way. 'Go for the gold' has a nice ring to it for many politicians. 

Enjoy your Friday everyone.